Which Groups Suffer Most in the Labor Market During Recessions? (2024)

[The] groups [that] experienced the greatest employment losses in the Great Recession [were] ... the same groups who lost in the recessions of the 1980s.

In Who Suffers During Recessions? (NBER Working Paper No. 17951), co-authors Hilary Hoynes, Douglas Miller, and Jessamyn Schaller find that the impacts of the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009) have been greater for men, for black and Hispanic workers, for young workers, and for less educated workers than for others in the labor market. While the recent recession was deeper than several other recent downturns, the pattern of unemployment and job opportunity cycles across demographic groups has been remarkably stable in recessions since at least the late 1970s. This is the case despite the dramatic changes in the labor market over the past 30 years, including the increase of women in the labor force, Hispanic immigration, the decline of manufacturing, and so on.

Using population survey and national time-series data, Hoynes, Miller, and Schaller find that in terms of job losses, the Great Recession has affected men more than women. But their analysis also shows that in previous recessions and recoveries, men experienced more cyclical labor market outcomes. This is largely because men are more likely to be employed in highly cyclical industries, such as construction and manufacturing. Women are more likely to be employed in less cyclical industries, such as services and public administration. While the pattern of labor market effects across sub-groups in the 2007-9 recession appears similar to that in the two recessions of the early 1980s, it did have a somewhat greater effect on women's employment -- although in this recession as in past recessions, the effects on women were smaller than those on men. The recent recession was felt more strongly among the youngest and oldest workers. Hoynes, Miller, and Schaller further find that relative to the 1980s recovery, the current recovery is being experienced more by men than women largely because of a drop in the cyclicality of women's employment during this recovery.

The researchers conclude that the overall picture is one of stability in the demographic patterns of response to the business cycle over time. Which groups experienced the greatest employment losses in the Great Recession? The same groups who lost in the recessions of the 1980s, and who experience weaker labor market outcomes even in good times. The authors therefore conclude that the labor market effects of the Great Recession were different from those of business cycles over the three previous decades in size and length, but not in type.

--Matt Nesvisky

Which Groups Suffer Most in the Labor Market During Recessions? (2024)

FAQs

Which Groups Suffer Most in the Labor Market During Recessions? ›

17951), co-authors Hilary Hoynes, Douglas Miller, and Jessamyn Schaller find that the impacts of the Great Recession (December 2007 to June 2009) have been greater for men, for black and Hispanic workers, for young workers, and for less educated workers than for others in the labor market.

Who suffers the most during a recession? ›

We find that the impacts of the Great Recession are not uniform across demographic groups and have been felt most strongly for men, black and Hispanic workers, youth, and low-education workers.

Who suffered the most during the Great Recession? ›

During the worst part of the Great Recession, virtually every segment of the U.S. economy was adversely affected. Employment losses were severe, but also unevenly distributed: men, the young, and the less educated suffered disproportionately in the recession's aftermath.

What jobs are most affected by a recession? ›

Who loses jobs in a recession? Recessions cause people to lose jobs in lots of different industries. During the Great Recession, the unemployment rate hit 10%. Construction and manufacturing often have to cut back on jobs more than other industries, but tech companies can also get hit by layoffs.

Who do recessions typically hurt? ›

Employment, hours, and earnings are higher for men, whites, prime-age workers, and those with higher education levels. The opposite pattern, for most groups, is found for unemployment. These differences can be substantial.

Who is least affected by a recession? ›

Defensive sectors like health care, staples, and utilities could be less vulnerable to recession risk.

Does the recession affect everyone? ›

Recessions are hard on everyone – and that includes you. With potential job losses on the horizon, the best thing you can do is secure your finances now and wait out the storm.

Who suffered during the 2008 financial crisis? ›

The Federal Reserve surveyed 4,000 households between 2007 and 2009, and found that the total wealth of 63% of all Americans declined in that period and 77% of the richest families had a decrease in total wealth, while only 50% of those on the bottom of the pyramid suffered a decrease.

Who lost jobs in the 2008 recession? ›

In 2008 as a whole, nearly 800,000 manufacturing jobs were lost, and 630,000 construction jobs disappeared as home-building slowed. Jobs also dried up in the financial sector, in publishing houses and trucking companies, department stores and hotels.

Who was most affected by the 2008 housing crisis? ›

The Hit to Minorities

Another commonly held perception is that minority and low-income households bore the brunt of the fallout of the subprime lending crisis. “The problem is that the most vulnerable households to recession are minority and low-income households,” Wachter said.

Who gets laid off first in a recession? ›

The very first layoff wave for any company is what is called “The deadwood” layoff. Everyone in tech knows this. It's where that dirtbag in your department who never really works, who always shirks and hides but does *just enough* to justify keeping him around - HE gets let go.

What jobs are immune from layoffs? ›

For employees, it's essential to be aware of recession-resistant industries. These industries, like healthcare, accommodation and food services, and retail trade, historically have lower layoff rates. So, considering opportunities in these sectors could be a smart move for job security during uncertain times.

What gets cheaper during a recession? ›

Because a decline in disposable income affects prices, the prices of essentials, such as food and utilities, often stay the same. In contrast, things considered to be wants instead of needs, such as travel and entertainment, may be more likely to get cheaper.

Who benefits from a recession? ›

A recession can create opportunities for certain types of businesses, primarily those that offer essential products or services that people cannot do without. These businesses tend to perform well during economic downturns because they cater to basic human needs.

Which country was most affected by the Great Recession? ›

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace reports in its International Economics Bulletin that Ukraine, as well as Argentina and Jamaica, were the countries most deeply affected by the crisis. Other severely affected countries were Romania, Ireland, Russia, Mexico, Hungary, the Baltic states.

When was the worst part of the Great Recession? ›

Nonetheless, in the fall of 2008, the economic contraction worsened, ultimately becoming deep enough and protracted enough to acquire the label “the Great Recession." While the US economy bottomed out in the middle of 2009, the recovery in the years immediately following was by some measures unusually slow.

When was the worst of the Great Recession? ›

The GDP bottom, or trough, was reached in the second quarter of 2009 (marking the technical end of the recession that is defined by "a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and ...

Who earned most in 2008 recession? ›

What groups (or individuals) actually profited from the 2008 financial crisis? - Quora. Plenty. Arguably the most famous was Michael Burry who bet hard against sub-prime mortgages when he was running his hedge fund, and made a fortune for his investors. His story was dramatised in the Hollywood film, The Big Short.

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