Are mortgage rates likely to fall in 2024? Here's what Freddie Mac predicts. (2024)

Tips for buying a home

It's been a tough year so far for homebuyers, who are facing the double whammy of high housing prices and rising loan rates. Unfortunately, the remainder of 2024 may not offer much relief, at least according to economists at mortgage buyer Freddie Mac.

"[W]e expect mortgage rates to remain elevated through most of 2024," Freddie Mac said in a Thursday housing outlook report. "These high interest rates will prompt prospective buyers to readjust their housing expectations, but we anticipate housing demand to remain high due to favorable demographics, particularly in the starter home segment."

Rates on a 30-year fixed mortgage are hovering above 7%, close to their highest point in more than 20 years. With inflation remaining stubbornly high, the Federal Reserve is expected to delay cutting its benchmark rate, and Freddie Mac said it's predicting that the central bank will only make one cut in 2024 — with that occurring toward the end of the year.

The Federal Reserve has said it would rather keep rates high until inflation cools to about 2% on an annual basis, rather than risk cutting too early and fueling another round of price spikes. But as a result, borrowers have been whalloped with higher loan costs for everything from credit cards to mortgages.

It's not only mortgage rates that have made homebuying this spring a tough proposition for many Americans, particularly those in middle- or low-income brackets. Tight inventory and rising home prices are pushing some buyers out of the market, with the median U.S. home sale price hitting a record $383,725,according to Redfin.

The cost of homeownership has grown so steep that it now takesa six-figure income to afford the typical home in the U.S., according to Zillow. For the first time in roughly two years, home prices did not fall in any of the nation's largest metro areas in April, Redfin said in a separatereport.

Higher mortgage rates have also had an impact on some current homeowners. Because many bought or refinanced their properties in the first years of the pandemic — when rates dropped below 3% — some are wary of selling their properties if it means taking on a new mortgage at today's rates.

Hesitant sellers combined with new construction failing to keep up with housing demand has created national shortage in both existing and new homes for sale, economists have said.

"Overall, tight inventory and higher for longer (mortgage) rates are still key barriers to home sale volumes," Freddie Mac said. "Mortgage rates above 7% continue to price out many prospective homebuyers and sellers have less incentive to sell."

Khristopher J. Brooks

Khristopher J. Brooks is a reporter for CBS MoneyWatch. He previously worked as a reporter for the Omaha World-Herald, Newsday and the Florida Times-Union. His reporting primarily focuses on the U.S. housing market, the business of sports and bankruptcy.

Are mortgage rates likely to fall in 2024? Here's what Freddie Mac predicts. (2024)

FAQs

Are mortgage rates likely to fall in 2024? Here's what Freddie Mac predicts.? ›

June 6, 2024

What are mortgage rates expected to do in 2024? ›

Inflation and Fed hikes have pushed mortgage rates up to a 20-year high. 30-year mortgage rates are currently expected to fall to between 6.5% and 7% in 2024. Homebuyers might consider buying now and refinancing later to avoid increased competition when rates drop.

Will we ever see 4 mortgage rates again? ›

Will we ever see the 4% mortgage again? The 4% mortgage is unlikely to return any time soon, real estate economists say. Realtor.com expects rates to ease by year's end – to 6.5%. “People are just going to have to get used to, if not 7% rates, then 6% rates,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist of Redfin.

What is the MBA origination forecast for 2024? ›

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today announced at its 2023 Annual Convention & Expo that total mortgage origination volume is expected to increase to $1.95 trillion in 2024 from the $1.64 trillion expected in 2023. Purchase originations are forecast to increase 11 percent to $1.47 trillion next year.

Will 2024 be a better time to buy a house? ›

Mortgage rates are expected to come down in 2024, and inventory and home sales are likely to increase. Homebuyers and sellers can also expect prices to continue to rise, albeit at a slower clip than the past couple of years.

What are the interest rates predicted for 2025? ›

The median estimate for the fed-funds rate target range at the end of 2025 moved to 3.75% to 4%, from 3.5% to 3.75% in December. For the end of 2026, the median dot now shows a target range of 3% to 3.25%, versus 2.75% to 3% three months ago.

Should I lock my mortgage rate today? ›

Once you find a rate that is an ideal fit for your budget, lock in the rate as soon as possible. There is no way to predict with certainty whether a rate will go up or down in the weeks or even months it sometimes takes to close your loan.

What is the interest prediction for 2024? ›

The mortgage rate forecast for 2024 is that rates are expected to go down, although it may take longer than had previously been hoped. In June 2024, we're seeing a mixed picture with the best mortgage rates on fixed rate mortgages; some are nudging up while others are being trimmed.

What is the housing forecast for Fannie Mae in 2024? ›

According to the most recently published non-seasonally adjusted Fannie Mae Home Price Index (FNM-HPI), home prices are forecast to rise 4.8 percent in 2024 on a Q4/Q4 basis and 1.5 percent in 2025, upgrades of 1.6 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points, respectively from our prior forecast.

What are the financial predictions for 2024? ›

We foresee both headline and core inflation falling to around 3% year over year by the end of 2024, down from 3.4% and 3.9% on a “trimmed mean” basis, respectively, in February. We expect inflation to fall to the midpoint of the RBA's 2%–3% target range in 2025.

Should I sell now or wait until 2024? ›

Best Time to Sell Your House for a Higher Price

April, June, and July are the best months to sell your house in California. The median sale price of houses in June 2023, was $796,400, which is expected to grow more in 2024. However, cities like Arcadia and San Mateo follow an upward trend throughout the year.

Should I buy a house now or wait for a recession? ›

And as you might imagine, recessions are a risky time to buy a home. If you lose your job, for example, a lender will be much less likely to approve your loan application. Even if the recession doesn't affect you directly, if your area is hard-hit, that could have a serious effect on the local real estate market.

What is the best month to buy a house? ›

If getting the lowest price possible is your main priority, consider searching for a home in November or December. There won't be as many houses to choose from compared to the spring and summer months, but you'll face less competition and a higher likelihood of purchasing a home below the asking price.

What will mortgage interest rates be in 2026? ›

The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.

Will personal loan rates go down in 2024? ›

Lower personal loan rates may be on the horizon in 2024 after the Fed made progress curbing inflation at the end of 2023. That progress came after four more Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2023.

Will mortgage rates go down in 2027? ›

However, increases should slow between 2024 and 2026, and rates may even decline in 2027. Among the factors that could impact mortgage rates in the next 5 years are inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and economic growth. Homebuyers should consider locking in a low mortgage rate now, as rates are expected to rise soon.”

Will HELOC rates go down in 2024? ›

Will HELOC Rates Go Down in 2024? The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates several times in 2024, which could lead to a change in HELOCs' benchmark rates and cause their interest rates to go down as well. However, there's no guarantee that rates will go down—it depends, in part, on whether inflation drops.

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