By Evlin DuBose and Jack Dona
Fact Checked
Advertiser disclosure
KeyPoints
- The Big 4 Banks do not expect any rate rises in 2024. The cash rate has peaked at 4.35%.
- The RBA may start cutting interest rates in November to December 2024.
- The next RBAinterest rates announcement is 18 June 2024.
- A technical recession is possible in 2024, but not looking likely at the moment.
Over the last two years, the home loan market has been rocked by a series of rate hikes thanks the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The central bank has been chasing runaway inflationwith tighter monetary policy.
Experts from the Big Four banks agree the dust will settle with the current official cash rateof 4.35%. The RBAhas certainly maintained a tightening bias, though it has softened its language considerably.
There is better news, too. As the economy recovers from disruptions,interest rates may come downin 2024, even as early as November.
Let's break down the predictions below.
How high will rates go in 2024? RBA rate hike movements, play by play
Any RBAdecision to raise official interest rates in 2024 will be strongly data-dependent, since the cash rate is already in deeply restrictive territory.
This means economic indicators such an employment, household spending, and wage growth (AKA"services inflation") will guide all RBA decisions in 2024.
At the moment, there is plenty of evidence that the economy has slowed down and that inflation has begun to moderate. Unemployment has started to uptick while wages growth has picked up the pace. This supports an argument for no rate hikes in 2024, leaving the cash rate at a peak of 4.35%.
Interest rate forecasts for 2024
The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% in May, which makes the next date the RBA could hike 18 June 2024.
Big Four Bank RBA interest rate forecasts (7 May 2024)
| Big Bank | Cash Rate Peak in 2024 |
| Commonwealth Bank | 4.35% p.a. |
| ANZ | 4.35% p.a. |
| Westpac | 4.35% p.a. |
| NAB | 4.35% p.a. |
In the meantime,mortgage stresswill continue to rock thehousing market. Even if we have seen the last cash rate hike decision, borrowers will keenly await a time when rates come down.
Will there be a rate cut or recession in 2024?
If the economy slows down too much, the RBA may choose to cut the cash rate. This is especially critical if they're trying to ward off arecession. However, with Australian employment still going strong, the alarm bells aren't quite ringing yet.
What's more, the Big Banks estimate that inflation will ease off in late 2024 and early 2025, potentially incentivising the RBA to relax its iron grip on the cash rate and pass along a series of cuts anyway.
RBA cash rate cut forecasts from Westpac and NAB (February 2024)
| Jun 24 | Sep 24 | Dec 24 | Mar 25 | Jun 25 | Sep 25 | |
| Westpac | 4.35% | 4.35% | 4.10% | 3.85% | 3.60% | 3.35% |
| NAB | 4.35% | 4.35% | 4.10% | 3.85% | 3.60% | 3.35% |
| CommBank | 4.35% | 4.35% | 4.10% | 3.85% | 3.60% | 3.35% |
CBA, Westpac, and NAB predict thatinterest rates will come down in 2024 at the earliest and 2025 at the latest, potentially bringing the cash rate into neutral territory of around 3%, while ANZ researchers suggest the cuts may be further down the road. Either way, there may be mortgage relief on the horizon.
However, with the cash rate currently resting at 4.35%, home loan borrowers will continue watching the RBA for future moves.
Calculators
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Stressed about mortgage repayments? Time to get proactive
An era of rate hikes has its advantages – if you know how to lean into monetary policy – and there are plenty of great strategies you could take for keeping your mortgage within your budget. So roll up your sleeves: it’s time to get proactive.
If you already have a mortgage:
- Get an offset account – and fill it up. While more common with variable home loans, an offset account could save you bundles on interest.
- Compare interest rates, and if you find something better, refinance. If you’re in a position to refinance, comparing what’s out there could clue you into deals with better rates, features, and support.
- Climb aboard the savings train. Home loan rates may be up, but thankfully, so are savings accounts. In fact, according to Peter Marshall, the term deposit war has only just begun. If you’re considering making the switch, you could start by comparing these high interest rate savings options.
If you’re looking to buy property:
- Let the government help you out. Every state in Australia has first home buyers grants and schemes aimed at improving access and affordability. On a national level, the Labor government has also announced its new Help to Buy scheme.
- Show lenders you’re a good bet. Lenders aren’t keen on approving applications from risky borrowers, so if you can, take steps to pay off your debt, save for a bigger deposit, and be mindful of your credit history.
- Walk into the auction with your head held high. High interest rates cool competition at auctions, so sellers may be more willing than you think to privately negotiate a price – and accept lower offers than normal. So if house prices have fallen in your area, the ball is in your court.
How much will $1 million buy in Australia's capitals? We compared the market so you don't have to. Compare low rate home loans in the table below.
Compare low interest home loans- last updated 25 May 2024
Search promoted home loans below or do a full Mozo database search.Advertiser disclosure
Featured Product
Mozo experts choice awards won:
- Low Cost Home Loan - 2024
For more information about these awards go here.
Unloan Variable
Owner Occupier, LVR <80%
interest rate
comparison rate
Initial monthly repayment
5.99% p.a. variable
5.90% p.a.
Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.
Compare
See AlsoWill mortgage rates go down in 2024?WSJ Prime Rate ForecastEconomists’ Survey: Fed To Keep Interest Rates High Through 2026 | BankrateFed Officials Increase Forecasts for Level of Rates in 2025, 2026Compare
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Unloan Variable
Built by CommBank, the Unloan is the first home loan with an increasing discount (conditions apply) for borrowers. No application or banking fees. No monthly account keeping or early exit fees. Apply online in minutes.
- interest rate
- 5.99% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 5.90% p.a.
- interest rate
- 5.99% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 5.90% p.a.
- Upfront fees
- $0
- Ongoing fees
- $0.00
- Discharge Fee
- $0.00
- Extra repayments
- yes - free
- Redraw facility
- yes - free
- Offset account
- no
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
- $10,000
- maximum borrowing amount
- $10,000,000
- type of mortgage
- Variable
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Special Offers
- -
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the Unloan Unloan Variable
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Offset Home Loan
Package, Owner Occupier, LVR<60%, Principal & Interest
interest rate
comparison rate
Initial monthly repayment
6.14% p.a. variable
6.39% p.a.
Ability to open up to 10 offset accounts per loan account. Fast online application. Linked Debit Mastercard® with fee-free access at ATMs across Australia. Package a credit card with your home loan and the annual card fee will be waived (T&Cs apply). 40% deposit required.
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Compare
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Offset Home Loan
Ability to open up to 10 offset accounts per loan account. Fast online application. Linked Debit Mastercard® with fee-free access at ATMs across Australia. Package a credit card with your home loan and the annual card fee will be waived (T&Cs apply). 40% deposit required.
- interest rate
- 6.14% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.39% p.a.
- interest rate
- 6.14% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.39% p.a.
- Upfront fees
- $350
- Ongoing fees
- $248.00 yearly
- Discharge Fee
- $400.00
- Extra repayments
- yes - free
- Redraw facility
- yes - free
- Offset account
- yes
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 60.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
- $150,000
- maximum borrowing amount
- $10,000,000
- type of mortgage
- Variable
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Monthly
- Special Offers
- -
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the Macquarie Offset Home Loan
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Discount Variable Home Loan
Owner Occupier, LVR<70%
interest rate
comparison rate
Initial monthly repayment
5.99% p.a. variable
6.01% p.a.
A low rate home loan for owner-occupiers packed with great features including unlimited extra repayments, free online redraw, no application or monthly admin fees. Rate will vary depending on LVR. Winner of a Mozo Experts Choice 2024 Low Cost Home Loan Award^
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Discount Variable Home Loan
A low rate home loan for owner-occupiers packed with great features including unlimited extra repayments, free online redraw, no application or monthly admin fees. Rate will vary depending on LVR. Winner of a Mozo Experts Choice 2024 Low Cost Home Loan Award^
- interest rate
- 5.99% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.01% p.a.
- interest rate
- 5.99% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.01% p.a.
- Upfront fees
- $210
- Ongoing fees
- $0.00
- Discharge Fee
- $345.00
- Extra repayments
- yes - free
- Redraw facility
- yes - free
- Offset account
- no
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 70.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
- $150,000
- maximum borrowing amount
- -
- type of mortgage
- Variable
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Special Offers
- -
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the Heritage Bank Discount Variable Home Loan
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Fixed Rate
Owner Occupier, Principal & Interest, <80% LVR
interest rate
comparison rate
Initial monthly repayment
6.54% p.a.
fixed 2 years7.10% p.a.
Enjoy up to $3000 cashback for eligible first home buyers and $2000 cashback for refinancers on eligible home loans with the ANZ Fixed Rate Home Loan. Get the security of repayment certainty with a competitive locked in rate. No ongoing fees to pay. Offset account on 1-year fixed loans ($10/month fee applies). Interest-only payments allowed.
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Fixed Rate
Enjoy up to $3000 cashback for eligible first home buyers and $2000 cashback for refinancers on eligible home loans with the ANZ Fixed Rate Home Loan. Get the security of repayment certainty with a competitive locked in rate. No ongoing fees to pay. Offset account on 1-year fixed loans ($10/month fee applies). Interest-only payments allowed.
- interest rate
- 6.59% p.a.
fixed 3 years
- comparison rate
- 7.06% p.a.
- interest rate
- 6.59% p.a.
fixed 3 years
- comparison rate
- 7.06% p.a.
- Upfront fees
- $160
- Ongoing fees
- $0.00
- Discharge Fee
- $160.00
- Extra repayments
- yes - free up to to lesser of 5% of original fixed loan amount, or $5,000 each year
- Redraw facility
- no
- Offset account
- Optional - $10 per month - 1 year fixed term only
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 80.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
- $20,000
- maximum borrowing amount
- -
- type of mortgage
- Fixed
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Weekly, Fortnightly, Monthly
- Special Offers
- $3,000 cashback for eligible First Home Buyers, $2,000 cashback when you refinance loans of $250k+, apply from 1 Dec 2022, settle within 180 days.
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the ANZ Fixed Rate
Interested in an ANZ home loan? Lendi specialists can help you refinance your home loan.
You can this discuss this option and compare against 25+ lenders with our trusted partner Lendi.
Answer a few questions online about your current loan and Lendi will connect you with one of their experienced home loan specialists, who can guide you every step of the way.
I want to refinance
Basic Home Loan
Owner Occupier, LVR<60%, Principal & Interest
interest rate
comparison rate
Initial monthly repayment
6.14% p.a. variable
6.16% p.a.
Enjoy a low rate home loan with $0 application fee and $0 ongoing fees. Flexibility to split your loan and set different repayment types. Fee free redraw from your loan using online banking. Flexible ways to repay. 40% Deposit required.
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Basic Home Loan
Enjoy a low rate home loan with $0 application fee and $0 ongoing fees. Flexibility to split your loan and set different repayment types. Fee free redraw from your loan using online banking. Flexible ways to repay. 40% Deposit required.
- interest rate
- 6.14% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.16% p.a.
- interest rate
- 6.14% p.a. variable
- comparison rate
- 6.16% p.a.
- Upfront fees
- $350
- Ongoing fees
- $0.00
- Discharge Fee
- $400.00
- Extra repayments
- yes - free
- Redraw facility
- yes - free
- Offset account
- no
- Maximum loan to value ratio
- 60.00%
- minimum borrowing amount
- $150,000
- maximum borrowing amount
- $10,000,000
- type of mortgage
- Variable
- Repayment types
- Principal & Interest
- Availability
- Owner Occupier
- Repayment options
- Monthly
- Special Offers
- -
Read our Mozo Review to learn more about the Macquarie Basic Home Loan
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*WARNING: This comparison rate applies only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and cost savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan. The comparison rate displayed is for a secured loan with monthly principal and interest repayments for $150,000 over 25 years.
**Initial monthly repayment figures are estimates only, based on the advertised rate. You can change the loan amount and term in the input boxes at the top of this table. Rates, fees and charges and therefore the total cost of the loan may vary depending on your loan amount, loan term, and credit history. Actual repayments will depend on your individual circ*mstances and interest rate changes.
^See information about the Mozo Experts Choice Home Loan Awards
Mozo provides general product information. We don't consider your personal objectives, financial situation or needs and we aren't recommending any specific product to you. You should make your own decision after reading the PDS or offer documentation, or seeking independent advice.
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